Coming this Fall! The Global Financial Crash
I'm no economist, but I had a great professor who served on the board of the Dallas Federal Reserve. And while that still doesn't really qualify me either, I've told people we're heading towards a very big financial mess - possibly, the worst the world has ever seen - in the coming months. From my own simple observations, here's why I think so....
10. Several top European banks are warning of such a crisis. This is not unheard of, but the strong language they use is. (i.e. - "meltdown", "depression", etc.)
9. Feds discount-sell Bear Sterns to Chase Morgan. This was also an unprecedented move since the Federal Reserve has only done this with banks and savings and loans.
8. Auto manufacturers: Chrysler has suspended their lease program. There are more rumors of GM and Ford heading into bankruptcy later this year. That is the entire US car industry.
7. Dark times call for Dark movies: The hit films this year echo our worries and fears even in entertainment.
6. More bank failures: UK Times reports the feds have over 90 banks on their watch/failure list. Indybank
was not even on the list. Oh, and two banks with 28 branches were seized over the weekend.
5. Tax rebate? Didn't even make a ripple on the economy.
4. Credit cards: According to the trade news, people are using their cards to purchase food, gas and pay utilities - not to buy Prada
shoes, Vegas vacations or electronics.
3. Oil. a stressed-out economy doesn't need to be hit with higher petrol prices - which will affect everything.
2. Other large industry trends: Airlines, publishing, retail, etc. Pick an industry and bankruptcies, price increases, layoffs and bad news exists.
1. Mortgages: Last year, foreclosures hit a record. So far this year? They're up over 200%. Look for this to move from homes to commercial real estate this fall. Institutional investors aren't ready for that and neither are the global markets.
1a. Dollar: tied at #1 is the falling dollar with low interest rates on Treasury bills. When Europe and the Pacific basin stop buying the dollar and start selling it to save themselves? All hell will break loose.
1b. Federal Reserve: Ok
, a 3-way tie. The last set of bank failures used up 20% of the Fed's reserve for rescue, and remember, there are 90 banks on the list.
My next post will be about Unicorns, Daisey's